A recent report from the International Monetary Fund provides yet another alarming overview of the impact of AI on the world of work, an impact that seems underestimated and lacking a long-term strategic vision.
The report argues that in low-income countries, 26% of jobs are threatened by AI and automation, 40% in emerging countries, and 60% in advanced countries.
Which jobs will disappear according to the International Monetary Fund?
If we try to level the percentage differences by geographical area, we can say that globally, artificial intelligence will have a significant impact on 40% of jobs worldwide.
Now, this significant impact may not necessarily be negative. According to the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, of these jobs, half are at risk of disappearing, while the other half may benefit from AI:
“Your job may disappear altogether — not good — or artificial intelligence may enhance your job, so you actually will be more productive and your income level may go up.”
In this case, we are talking about “high complementarity” jobs, i.e., jobs that can be enhanced and improved by AI but cannot be replaced. The IMF report cites the example of judges who, given the improvement of AI in text analysis, might see many of their tasks replaceable by Artificial Intelligence. At the same time, it is highly unlikely that society would leave certain decisions to a machine. Therefore, the work of judges (and lawyers) is of high complementarity and can benefit from AI. In theory, all cognitive jobs involving a high level of responsibility in decision-making are of high complementarity, while cognitive jobs that can be automated without risks are of high exposure, i.e., at risk of disappearing.
The end of useless jobs?
In 2018, anthropologist David Graeber published a book titled “Bullshit Jobs” to expose his theory that the automation of many labor tasks by machinery has not led to the optimization of work and the economy. Instead, it has created, in the author’s words, “a form of paid employment that is so completely pointless, unnecessary, or pernicious that even the employee cannot justify its existence even though, as part of the conditions of employment, the employee feels obliged to pretend that this is not the case.”
Graeber also categorized these jobs into types. The idea is that our culture has failed to overcome an ethic in which an individual’s personal value is measured solely by work, and work becomes the person’s identity. With the reduction of manual labor, we have created senseless jobs instead of creating a society where everyone works less.
However, with the advent of AI, the truth is revealed, and automation becomes even more powerful. For example, in the categories of bullshit jobs, the anthropologist defines one called “duct tapes,” which refers to professionals who offer temporary solutions to problems that should actually be avoided or definitively solved. For instance, programmers fixing poorly written code instead of rewriting it correctly or airline staff managing the frustration of passengers whose baggage has been lost.
With artificial intelligence, these jobs can disappear already. In the case of software, AI can continuously monitor code in real-time, significantly reducing the chances of errors and applying corrections where necessary. For baggage handling, airlines can use intelligent algorithms that scan baggage codes, and with a simple reader at the entrance and exit of the cargo hold, verify in real-time that all baggage to be loaded or unloaded has been checked.
In short, AI can make a good part of those bullshit jobs disappear, jobs that do nothing but perpetuate and repeat tasks without being part of the solution. This is good news in the long run because perhaps truly dignified and non-alienating forms of work will emerge, without a series of daily tasks with no beginning or end. However, in the short term, the risks of unemployment and poverty are looming.
This could explain why, in richer countries, jobs exposed to AI account for 60%, as highly automated and technological economies like those in the West are the most vulnerable from this perspective. Unfortunately, the temptation to replace labor is higher where labor costs are higher.
Your destiny doesn’t depend on a category
The categories of jobs used in the IMF’s report are three and try to define the relationship of jobs with the threats and opportunity brought by AI. The three categories are high exposure, low exposure and high complementarity and are fairly static categories that do not encompass an infallible prophecy about the future of all jobs. There are many cases where individual skills and attitudes, as well as knowledge and use of AI, will make the difference.
At WriterGenie, we have been repeating the same thing for almost a year now. Professionals must focus on expanding their skills, gaining a deeper understanding of AI tools relevant to their activities, and using them to the best of their abilities consistently. Currently, the risk for 100% of professions is not simply being replaced by AI but being replaced by a person who knows how to use AI very well.
Even in the cases of jobs that the IMF considers to be of high complementarity, the risk remains for those who lag behind. If the efficiency and productivity of a lawyer increases with AI, lawyers who don’t use it will be left behind. Surgeons who use AI will work and earn more, and this applies to every profession that will not disappear due to AI.
While it is true that writing content can be considered an activity with a low level of responsibility that could be fully automated, the result is not exactly the same as having a professional writing. It will certainly be possible to replace a large portion of people who write mediocre content and create one-time texts, but it will be very difficult for AI to achieve the results of a person who writes with the perspective of a well-thought-out content marketing strategy, understood, assimilated, and proven through years of past field experiences. A writer that can connect emotionally with the reader because of talent and creativity, two things AI cannot mimic.
In the case of a skilled writer AI becomes complementary in the execution of certain tasks, but it is the human-AI collaboration that makes the difference and creates value.
Our society should focus on this cooperation between AI and people. Companies and institutions should encourage short-term training programs and social safety nets to help with the transition phase and avoid that the 40% of jobs strongly impacted by AI become another opportunity to create economic and social inequalities.
On our part, at WriterGenie, we have developed our AI writing tool that embodies our vision, an AI writing assistant that does not replace the human writer but takes care of the most repetitive and tedious tasks, leaving space and time for talent and creativity.